The Girl Named Florida – Probably Overthinking It
In The Drunkard’s Walk, Leonard Mlodinow presents “The Lady Named Florida Downside”:
“In a household with two kids, what are the probabilities, if [at least] one of many kids is a lady named Florida, that each kids are women?”
I added “not less than” to Mlodinow’s assertion of the issue to keep away from a refined ambiguity.
I wrote about this drawback in a previous article from 2011. As you may see within the feedback, my rationalization was not met with common acclaim.
This time, I wish to take a distinct method.
First, to keep away from some real-world problems, let’s assume that this query takes place in an imaginary metropolis known as Statesville the place:
- Each household has two kids.
- 50% of kids are male and 50% are feminine.
- All kids are named after U.S. states, and all state names are chosen with equal likelihood.
- Genders and names inside every household are chosen independently.
Second, reasonably than resolve it mathematically, I’ll display it computationally:
Both manner, I hope you take pleasure in getting your head round this drawback.